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October 23, 2011

Insider: Playoff race analysis

With two weeks remaining in the 2011 Canadian Football League regular season, just two points separate the top three teams in the West Division.

In Week 17 action, the Stampeders kept pace with the Edmonton Eskimos and gained a game on the BC Lions thanks to Calgary’s 25-13 victory over the Saskatchewan Roughriders at McMahon Stadium on Friday night.

While the Stamps are at a disadvantage because they lost the season series to both Edmonton and BC, Calgary still could finish first or second in the division. The order of finish will be determined by five games over the final two weeks.

Week 18

Saturday, Oct. 29
Edmonton (10-6) at BC (9-7)

A win would allow the Eskimos to clinch first place in the West. A BC victory would create a deadlock heading into Week 19, with the Lions having the tie-breaker advantage because of the season-series win.

Sunday, Oct. 30
Calgary (9-7) at Montreal (10-6)

Regardless of Saturday’s result between Edmonton and BC, the Stamps need a win over the Alouettes to strengthen their bid for a home playoff game. Montreal, for its part, is still battling for top spot in the East.

Wins by BC and Calgary would create a three-way tie for first place, although the Stampeders would still be facing the tie-breaker disadvantage and would technically be in third place.

If Calgary loses and BC wins, the Stamps would be guaranteed of a third-place finish.

Week 19

The results of Week 18 will dictate the importance of the final-week contests.

On Friday, Saskatchewan will play Edmonton on Commonwealth Stadium. The following day, the Stamps host Winnipeg while BC will face the Alouettes in Vancouver.

Here are the possible scenarios for the final two weeks and what they would mean for the Stamps:

  • Stamps lose final two games (third-place finish for Calgary)
  • Stamps split two games and BC gets one win (third-place finish for Calgary)
  • BC wins two games and Edmonton wins one game (third-place finish for Calgary regardless of Stamps results)
  • Stamps split two games and BC loses two games (second-place finish for Calgary)
  • Stamps win both games, Lions lose one and Eskimos win one (second-place finish for Calgary)
  • Stamps win both games, Lions lose one and Eskimos lose two (first-place finish for Calgary)